The first half of 2021 was unexpectedly very successful for the Russian market. Whether the market will retain its potential and which papers to focus on until the end of the year, economist and financier Konstantin Vladimirovich Tserazov (Konstantin Tserazov) told in our interview.
At the end of the first half of the year, the Moscow Exchange index updated its historical maximum, having risen by 14.7%, the RTS index rose by 17.1%. The growth driver, according to the expert, was the rise in commodity prices against the backdrop of a general improvement in the global economy. The fundamental factor in the recovery of the global economy was the soft monetary policy of the world’s central banks and the provision of liquidity to the markets. Positively influenced the recovery and high rates of vaccination of the population, Konstantin Tserazov points out.
The key risks, according to Konstantin Tserazov, until the end of the year will remain geopolitics, sanctions pressure, as well as the possibility of a worsening epidemiological situation.
Until the end of the year, attention should be paid, first of all, to blue chip companies with a good dividend history. The beneficiary of the economic recovery will be the banking sector, primarily Sberbank, which can show record profits and, accordingly, pay high dividends. In the oil and gas industry, Gazprom appears to be the clear favorite; the potential dividend yield of this issuer’s shares, according to analysts at Otkritie Bank, may exceed 10%. According to Konstantin Tserazov, LUKOIL may become one of the leaders in dividend yield at the end of 2021, it is also worth including Surgutneftegaz preferred shares in the dividend portfolio, the economist advises.